圭亞那正在迅速成為這個(gè)星球上最熱門的新石油前沿之一  

據(jù)估計(jì)，圭亞那斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)超過(guò)110億桶的可采石油資源  

?？松梨诠菊诔蔀檫@個(gè)新石油熱區(qū)的最大贏家之一

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，貧窮的南美小國(guó)圭亞那已成為南美洲最大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)之一，并有望成為全球主要的能源出口國(guó)。自2015年以來(lái)，由美國(guó)埃克森美孚公司牽頭的國(guó)際財(cái)團(tuán)在圭亞那近海660萬(wàn)英畝的斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊發(fā)現(xiàn)了大量高質(zhì)量石油，最新石油發(fā)現(xiàn)在2022年7月宣布。 據(jù)估計(jì)，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)已經(jīng)在斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊發(fā)現(xiàn)近110億桶可采石油資源，未來(lái)還將發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的石油資源。 

埃克森美孚公司擁有斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊45%的股份，美國(guó)赫斯公司持有30%的股份。?？松梨诠炯捌浜献骰锇檎谝蚤W電般的速度開(kāi)發(fā)斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊。位于斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊東南部的麗莎大油田目前每天從兩艘浮式產(chǎn)油儲(chǔ)油卸油船(FPSO)開(kāi)采出大約36萬(wàn)桶原油。從麗莎大油田采出的原油質(zhì)量輕，含硫量0.58%，API度為32。這使得開(kāi)采和提煉變得更容易、更便宜。 這意味著麗莎級(jí)原油更便宜、更容易生產(chǎn)，也更容易提煉成高質(zhì)量的燃料油，與更重、硫含量更高的原油級(jí)別相比，尤其是與鄰國(guó)委內(nèi)瑞拉生產(chǎn)的原油相比，麗莎級(jí)原油的碳足跡更低。 

因此，在圭亞那近海發(fā)現(xiàn)和生產(chǎn)的原油對(duì)全球能源公司特別有吸引力，全球能源公司面臨著巨大的壓力，需要大幅減少排放和脫碳。圭亞那海上地區(qū)原油預(yù)計(jì)平均盈虧平衡價(jià)格為每桶35美元，這反映了該行業(yè)的低成本，使這個(gè)極度貧困的國(guó)家成為拉丁美洲原油生產(chǎn)成本最低、利潤(rùn)最高的地區(qū)之一。 這些因素使得圭亞那近海地區(qū)成為業(yè)內(nèi)人士所說(shuō)的世界上最令人興奮的石油前沿。這正推動(dòng)更多外國(guó)能源公司投資圭亞那的碳?xì)浠衔镄袠I(yè)。 

2020年11月，當(dāng)布倫特原油價(jià)格在每桶45美元左右時(shí)，埃克森美孚公司宣布將優(yōu)先考慮圭亞那、美國(guó)二疊紀(jì)盆地和巴西的資本支出，因?yàn)檫@些地區(qū)具有巨大的潛力。?？松梨诠灸壳皩?duì)斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的開(kāi)采將在該公司積極實(shí)施脫碳計(jì)劃中發(fā)揮至關(guān)重要的作用。此前，?？松梨诠疽蚝鲆暁夂蜃兓奈ｋU(xiǎn)而受到嚴(yán)厲批評(píng)。2021年，埃克森美孚公司宣布，計(jì)劃到2030年前將其上游業(yè)務(wù)的溫室氣體排放減少40%至50%，這在一定程度上是因?yàn)檫@家美國(guó)超級(jí)能源巨頭承諾停止伴生氣放空燃燒。 

這些原因促使埃克森美孚公司繼續(xù)推進(jìn)斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的開(kāi)發(fā)，并在圭亞那近海擁有股份的其他區(qū)塊進(jìn)行勘探活動(dòng)。在2021年期間，這家美國(guó)超級(jí)能源巨頭計(jì)劃在2022年至2027年期間投入200億至250億美元的資本支出，其中60%的投資將投向圭亞那、巴西、二疊紀(jì)盆地及其液化天然氣和化工業(yè)務(wù)。目前，日產(chǎn)22萬(wàn)桶原油的圭亞那帕拉亞項(xiàng)目正在開(kāi)發(fā)中，比計(jì)劃提前了大約5個(gè)月，預(yù)計(jì)在2023年底前開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)。?？松梨诠具€在推進(jìn)圭亞那的Yellowtail項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)將在2025年投產(chǎn)，原油日產(chǎn)能為25萬(wàn)桶。隨著帕拉亞和Yellowtail項(xiàng)目的完工，到2025年底，斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的原油日產(chǎn)量將至少達(dá)到81萬(wàn)桶，甚至可能更多。 

行業(yè)分析師估計(jì)，到2027年前，圭亞那的原油日產(chǎn)量將至少達(dá)到100萬(wàn)桶，而一些人認(rèn)為這一數(shù)字可能更高，達(dá)到120萬(wàn)桶。屆時(shí)，圭亞那將超過(guò)哥倫比亞，成為拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)第三大石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。圭亞那-蘇里南盆地最近的發(fā)現(xiàn)，以及對(duì)其碳?xì)浠衔餄摿Φ墓烙?jì)，表明圭亞那和蘇里南近海的可采石油資源總和超過(guò)180億桶油當(dāng)量。這一數(shù)字明顯高于美國(guó)地質(zhì)調(diào)查局2012年估計(jì)的136億桶未發(fā)現(xiàn)石油資源的平均值。

由于不斷獲得新發(fā)現(xiàn)，圭亞那的可采石油資源將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。2022年6月，?？松梨诠驹谒顾剪斂藚^(qū)塊的Banjo-1初探井開(kāi)鉆，截至2022年9月初，鉆井活動(dòng)仍在繼續(xù)。埃克森美孚公司還在2022年9月開(kāi)始鉆探斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的Sailfin-1井，使其成為今年迄今為止的第9口初探井。由于?？松梨诠驹诠鐏喣墙碛写罅繚撛阢@井目標(biāo)，該公司計(jì)劃開(kāi)發(fā)更多的產(chǎn)油井。這家美國(guó)綜合能源公司宣布今年7月在斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊Seabob和Kiru-Kiru井獲得了兩個(gè)重要石油發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨后該公司開(kāi)展了最新的油氣勘探活動(dòng)。

這些事態(tài)發(fā)展表明圭亞那不僅將成為一個(gè)主要的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)和出口國(guó)，而且有可能積累大量石油儲(chǔ)備。甚至有人猜測(cè)，根據(jù)目前鉆探成功的速度，圭亞那的石油儲(chǔ)量最終將超過(guò)巴西，成為拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)僅次于委內(nèi)瑞拉的第二大石油儲(chǔ)量國(guó)。?？松梨诠炯捌湓谒顾剪斂藚^(qū)塊的合作伙伴時(shí)下正處于從圭亞那快速擴(kuò)張的海上石油繁榮中獲利的理想位置。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Exxon May Emerge As The Biggest Winner In Guyana’s Oil Boom

·     Guyana is quickly becoming one of the hottest new oil frontiers on the planet.

·     It is estimated that over 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources have been discovered in the Stabroek Block.

·     Exxon is emerging as one of the biggest winners in this new oil hotspot.

The impoverished tiny South American country of Guyana has emerged as one of the continent’s top oil producers and is poised to become a leading global energy exporter. Since 2015 an Exxon Mobil-led consortium has made a swathe of high-quality oil discoveries in offshore Guyana in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block, with the latest announced in July 2022. It is estimated those finds have uncovered nearly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources in the Stabroek Block with further oil discoveries to come. 

Exxon, the operator who owns 45% of the block with Hess holding 30%，is developing the Stabroek Block at a lightning pace. The Liza oilfield, located in the southeast of the block, is currently pumping around 360,000 barrels of crude oil per day from two floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels; Liza Destiny and Liza Unity. The petroleum pumped from the Liza field is light and sweet, with an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content. That makes it easier and cheaper to extract as well as refine. This means Liza-grade crude oil is cheaper and easier to produce as well as refine into high-quality fuels, giving it a lower carbon footprint compared to heavier sourer grades, particularly those produced in neighboring Venezuela. 

As a result, the oil discovered and produced in offshore Guyana is particularly attractive to global energy companies, which are under considerable pressure to significantly reduce emissions and decarbonize their operations. Industry low costs, as reflected by offshore Guyana’s forecast average breakeven price of $35 per barrel, make the deeply impoverished country one of the lowest cost and hence most profitable jurisdictions in Latin America. These factors have seen offshore Guyana emerge as what industry insiders are calling the world’s most exciting oil frontier. That is driving even greater investment inflows into Guyana’s hydrocarbon sector from foreign energy companies.

In November 2020, at a time when Brent was selling for around $45 per barrel, Exxon announced it was prioritizing Guyana, along with the Permian Basin and Brazil, for capital spending because of the jurisdiction’s considerable potential. Exxon’s ongoing exploitation of the Stabroek Block will play a vital role in the company’s plans to aggressively decarbonize its operations after being heavily criticized for ignoring the perils of climate change. In 2021, Exxon announced that it intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its upstream operations by between 40% and 50% by 2030, which will in part occur because of the energy supermajor’s commitment to end flaring.

These reasons see Exxon pressing ahead with developing the Stabroek Block and exploration activities in other blocks where it holds a stake in offshore Guyana. During 2021 the energy supermajor announced it intends to spend $20 billion to $25 billion on capital expenditures between 2022 and 2027, with 60% of that investment directed to Guyana, Brazil, the Permian and its LNG as well as chemical businesses. The 220,000 barrel per day Payara project is currently under development with it approximately five months ahead of schedule and slated to commence production before the end of 2023. Exxon is also advancing the Yellowtail project, which is forecast to come online during 2025 with a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day. The completion of Payara and Yellowtail will see Stabroek Block producing at least 810,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, potentially even more. 

Industry analysts estimate that Guyana will be pumping at least one million barrels of crude oil daily by 2027, while some believe that figure could be higher, reaching 1.2 million barrels. When that occurs, Guyana will overtake Colombia to become the third largest oil producer in Latin America and the Caribbean. Recent discoveries in the basin, along with estimates of their hydrocarbon potential, point to the combined recoverable oil resources of offshore Guyana and Suriname being more than 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That number is significantly higher than the mean 13.6 billion barrels of undiscovered oil resources estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2012.

Guyana’s recoverable oil resources will keep growing as further discoveries occur. In June 2022, Exxon spudded the Banjo-1 wildcat well in the Stabroek Block and as of early September 2022 drilling activity was continuing. The energy supermajor also started drilling the Sailfin-1 well in the Stabroek Block during September 2022, making it the ninth wildcat well so far this year. Further wells are planned with Exxon holding a large inventory of prospective drilling targets in offshore Guyana. That latest exploration activity comes on the back of the integrated energy company announcing two oil discoveries in the Stabroek Block during July 2022, at the Seabob and Kiru-Kiru wells.

These developments point to Guyana becoming not only a major oil producer and exporter but that it has the potential to amass significant oil reserves. There is even speculation, based on the current rate of drilling success, that eventually Guyana’s oil reserves could overtake Brazil’s, seeing it possess the second largest oil reserves in Latin America and the Caribbean behind Venezuela. Exxon and its partners in the Stabroek Block are ideally placed to profit from Guyana’s rapidly expanding offshore oil boom.